To analyze the facts and
conditions defining an answer to this question needs a very long essay. This
short attempt will delineate some of the factors which may or may not answer
the question in the affirmative.
Geography is history and
according to this time honored maxim geography is against the creation of an
independent Kurdish state. Iraqi, Syrian, Turkish and Iranian Kurdish territories
are all landlocked and surrounded by enemies. No doubt, there are several
landlocked independent states in Central Asia with the most notorious of those
being Afghanistan, but so is Switzerland. All these states are independent due
to either the convention holding between their neighbors for keeping them
independent as a balance of power amongst them or because they are
insignificant in terms of wealth or strategic importance. Now that Central Asia
is free from the USSR, the Afghanistan epos is just the initial stage of a
power struggle for rich deposits of gas, oil and minerals in the area between
the USA, Russia, and China.
The second negative factor is
that Kurdistan is a unique case in the history of nations. There are about 30
million Kurds scattered in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran and even in the Caucasus
area. They have a distinct language, customs and cultural traditions from their
host countries but they are Moslems, mostly Sunnis but also Shiites. The modern
history of the Kurds is a series of betrayals both by the Great Powers after
WWI and by their leadership which was and is still divided between warring
clans for supremacy and wealth. The Barzani and Talabani clans are both suspect
for the civil war in Iraqi Kurdistan which left thousands dead during the
1994-98 internecine conflict.
A third negative factor for an
independent state of the Kurdish nation is that four states must acquiesce to
it: Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. None of those states is willing or had ever
formulated a policy for an independent Kurdish state. At this historical
juncture the only possible area which may become independent is the Iraqi
federal state of Kurdistan.
The first and most crucial
positive factor for Kurdish independence is the ISIS onslaught over northern
and western Iraq after the capture of Mosul in June 10th. This
gave the chance for the Kurdish Peshmerga army to move into the “Kurdish
Jerusalem”, the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and occupy it. Since then many Kurdish
voices have risen to the effect of “now is the time” or “history is on our
side” to ask for independence. Barzani, though, the President of Kurdistan was
in no hurry to declare independence. John Kerry visited him and asks him to
help keep Iraq as a unitary
state helping the central government.
Two days later Barzani went to
Turkey to talk with PM Erdogan about the Kurdish problem, oil exports and
money. Here is a vehement reaction to this visit branded by Shiites as an
effort to create a new Zionist
state.
On June 16th Barzani
also visited Iran
and met with military officials. Iran made it clear that opposes
an independent Kurdistan.
Israel has also entered the
fray saying that Kurdish independence is a
foregone conclusion. Netanyahu himself endorsed Kurdish
independence.
The blitzkrieg move towards
Baghdad by ISIS was part of a Sunni insurrection by jihadist extremists and
former Baath party members as well as Sunni tribes feeling excluded by the
political manipulations of PM al-Maliki, pointed towards an Iraqi disintegration.
The chaos which broke out gave the required pretext to Iraqi Kurdistan for
declaring independence.
Iraqi Kurdistan sits on about
the fifth of Iraqi oil reserves but can sell oil only through Turkey. Oil is
its sole hard currency earner and Baghdad hasn’t paid the apportioned 17% of
the state’s budget to Kurdistan due to a spat about whose oil Kurdistan’s oil
is. Can the Kurds sell their oil on their own in the market or should they sell
it through Baghdad? The answer is written in the stars of ISIS and the
unfolding events in Iraq. Today ISIS declared Presently the Kurds sold
oil in the open market through Turkey albeit in a heavily reduced price and one
of the cargoes went to Israel,
although it is unknown if the final destination is Israel itself.
Economic survival
necessitate that they have to reach an accommodation with Turkey. Without an
agreement with Erdogan independence is an exercise in futility. The only other
way to get money for oil is to sell it to Iran and this is another tough and
dangerous deal. Iran can pressure the new state to an alignment with its
policies in the area which may be contrary to Kurdish, American and most
importantly Israeli interests. Foremost of all is the US-Iranian relations
which maybe on the mending but it is impossible to assess as normal. Actually a
deal over the nuclear weapons issue is very doubtful except if the American see
Iran as a possible stabilizing factor in the area. However Israel is not going
to forego Iran as an existential threat and it will do everything to undermine
that deal.
The Kurds are looking for help
from Israel and there are strong voices from both sides describing the ancient
ties of the two nations and the common destiny of the two as people of the
diaspora. This is anathema for jihadists and Salafists in the Arab world who
still view Israel as an occupier of Arab lands and the new Kurdish state as a
Zionist one. The Kurdish envoy in London said
that Kurdistan is not working with Israel.
At this point in the history of
the Kurds Turkey is the best venue for their independence. It is also the
case that PM Erdogan is trying to solve in some way or another Turkey’s Kurdish
problem and talk with PKK and the leaders of the Kurdish community of Turkey.
He had secured the co-operation of Barzani who is not in good terms with the
PKK and who urges them for a peace agreement with Turkey. The PKK volunteered
to send troops to support the Peshmerga army in Kirkuk and the surrounding
areas. Turkey in its drive to solve its Kurdish problem has even downgraded the
plight of the Turkmens in Iraq who are attacked by ISIS. There is an open
channel between Barzani and Erdogan which nevertheless can be sabotaged at any
time by fanatics, nationalists or oil deals blocked by the USA. If Turkey’s
willingness to accommodate the possibility of a Kurdish independent state in
Iraq is the sufficient condition for Kurdish statehood the necessary condition
is the USA. But Turkey has already backtracked on Kurdish independence rejecting
the capture of Kirkuk as a permanent one.
By declaring independence the
Iraqi Kurds in effect destroy Iraq as it was morphed by the British and French
accord after WWI and after the American invasion of 2003. This interplay
between ISIS’ and Kurdish aspiration constitutes a prisoners dilemma. In
a sense history’s irony appears as revenge of the Kurds after all the prosecution
and pain they suffered in the hands of Arabs and Turks for centuries. They more
or less hold the destiny of Iraq and the whole of the Middle East and the Arabs
in their hands.
Presently, Obama is not willing
to split Iraq. He is seeking funds from Congress
to arm and train a Syrian moderate army which means that he wants to thwart
ISIS’ plans for a Caliphate straddling both Syria and Iraq. If this plan is
genuine and not a political diversion for US public opinion it quashes the
chances for an independent Kurdistan. Russia is also helping Maliki’s
government by selling to him airplanes
to be used against ISIS. Subsequently Barzani called the Kurdistan Autonomous
Region parliament to prepare for a referendum on independence
whereas PM Maliki rejected the territorial claims
of the Kurds on Kirkuk. Actually the USA has rejected
the referendum for independence.
The last but not the least
factor against the creation of a Kurdish independent state is the hostility of
the Arabs towards such a deal. Let us not forget that the Arabs aren’t a
unified nationhood. There are non-Arabs minorities amongst Arabs such as the
Touaregs and the Berbers and several others. Arab nationalism does not accept
such a view of “Arab lands”. The Kurds with a declaration of independence
challenge the concept of Arabism and create further divisions besides the
religious and sectarian cleavages among Sunni-Shiite-Alevis-Alewites and
Christians of the MENA area and beyond.
Finally, if an independent
Kurdistan is created only on the Iraqi side what will be the impact upon the
Kurds in Turkey, Syria and Iran? Can they have an independent state of 5
million Kurds where 25 or more are citizens of other neighboring states? No
other similar example is known. The Kurdish leadership is trying hard to
project the view that an Independent Kurdistan is a valuable neighbor to Turkey
and that it poses no threat to it. here
The conclusion of all the above
is that an independent Kurdistan will redraw the map of the Arab world and the
Middle East. Consequently it will redraw the priorities and strategic interests
of the USA, Europe and for that matter Russia and China. History may indeed
force the hand of the participants to accept such realignment but the process
before an eventual peace will be more bloodshed and strife. As events unfold
neither the USA nor Turkey are supporting Kurdish independence. So this move is
non-starter for now. In the meantime ISIS has declared the establishment of an Islamic
Caliphate electing as Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi spanning
western Iraq and eastern Syria. He asked all Muslims and jihadists to pay
allegiance to him. This development is historically a watershed for the Middle
East and for Kurdish independence. If this self-proclaimed Caliphate endures as
a fighting force against the Iraqi government, Muslim states as Iraq, Syria,
Jordan and some others will collapse internally. In this case Kurdish
independence becomes easier but at the same time it may easily fall prey to a
maelstrom of sectarian wars.
Nicholas A. Biniaris Hellas
7/26/2014
